With Don Cossack joining Coneygree as yet another contender who won’t be lining up to deny Thistlecrack his Cheltenham Gold Cup as a novice, you could be forgiven for thinking that this was a market that wasn’t worth bothering with. Indeed, instinct would say side with the proven class performer in Cue Card, except instinct clearly wasn’t watching his demolition by Thistlecrack in the King George. Thankfully maths can help us out.
Today, on the 13th January, there are 39 horses declared for Cheltenham Gold Cup. Five of those are trained by Colin Tizzard. The prices in brackets are the LAY price on Betfair at the time of writing:
- Thistlecrack (2.2)
- Native River (8)
- Cue Card (17)
- Alary (26)
- Theatre Guide (No Odds)
If we convert those odds into a percentage chance of winning:
Thistlecrack (45.5%), Native River (12.5%), Cue Card (5.9%) and Alary (3.8%)
Then we can deduce that Colin Tizzard has a 67.7% chance of training the winner of National Hunt’s most prestigious prize.
67.7% in decimal back odds would be 1.47.
Luckily for us Sky Bet are offering 1.62 that Tizzard trains the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. That is a rick. Fill your boots.